Donald Trump: Weekly window, May 17, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (May 17)
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
23 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 81%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War / Eighth War | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Regime change | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Chair | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wind | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Asylum | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| North Korea | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NVIDIA | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | Yes | – | 0 | 36%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Great Again | No | – | 0 | 78%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Uncle / Unc | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Magnet | No | – | 0 | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shipbuilding | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Silicon Valley | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blackwell | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Traitor | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hantavirus | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midterm Election | No | – | 0 | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Rare earth / Mineral | No | – | 0 | 37%n=32 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-may-17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP