Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Alabama, Oct 2, 2026
At the rally on Oct 2, 2026, Donald Trump said 25 of the 50 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
50 words · 25 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save America Act | Yes | 59%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 55%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 54%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 51%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 49%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 49%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 45%n=240 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | Yes | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 44%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Hotel | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Saban | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 41%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 40%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Football | Yes | 40%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 38%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 36%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 33%n=353 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 31%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 28%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 24%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 21%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 60%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 59%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 58%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Job 15+ times | No | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| College Sports | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commencement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 45%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Lake America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 44%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 44%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 41%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 38%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 37%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 29%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 28%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 24%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 15%n=266 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 12%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 11%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=517 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-02:rally-alabama · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-02:rally-alabama · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP