Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Nebraska, Oct 5, 2026
At the rally on Oct 5, 2026, Donald Trump said 31 of the 54 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
54 words · 31 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 69%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 65%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 59%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 58%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 56%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 52%n=243 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 51%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 50%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Tractor | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 49%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 49%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 49%n=196 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 48%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 25+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Independent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Love | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 46%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 44%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Corn | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 41%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 39%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 39%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 31%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 30%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 28%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 18%n=269 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 54%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 10+ times | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Damn 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Omaha | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Right to Fix | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Aluminum | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 47%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 40%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ethanol | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | No | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 33%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 30%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 26%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 26%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 25%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 23%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 21%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 10%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 9%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=520 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-05:rally-nebraska · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-05:rally-nebraska · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP