Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Ohio, Oct 3, 2026
At the rally on Oct 3, 2026, Donald Trump said 29 of the 53 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
53 words · 29 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save America Act | Yes | 61%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 60%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| No Tax on Tips | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 49%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 49%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Electric / Electricity | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 5000 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 48%n=242 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 47%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Vance | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 46%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 10+ times | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 42%n=195 from settlement history | – |
| Moreno | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Vivek / Ramaswamy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 41%n=181 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 39%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 37%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 32%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 30%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 26%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 24%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 20%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 14%n=267 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum | No | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 56%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Pennsylvania | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | No | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Honda | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Dirty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | 46%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Train | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Haiti / Haitian | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| School Choice | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 38%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 37%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 33%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 31%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 26%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 12%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 10%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=518 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-03:rally-ohio · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-03:rally-ohio · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP