Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Ohio, Oct 12, 2026
At the rally on Oct 12, 2026, Donald Trump said 31 of the 54 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
54 words · 31 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 78%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 70%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 66%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 64%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 64%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 63%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 62%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 61%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 60%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 58%n=248 from settlement history | – |
| Border 10+ times | Yes | 55%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Shit | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Vivek / Ramaswamy | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 52%n=189 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 50%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 49%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 49%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Columbus | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 45%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 10+ times | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Acton | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Husted | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sherrod Brown | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 43%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 41%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 38%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | Yes | 35%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 28%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 59%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Muscle / Muscular | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dad / Daddy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coal | No | 50%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Vegan 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 46%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 46%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Lordstown | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Aluminum | No | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Executive Order | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 40%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 5+ times | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 26%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=275 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 24%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 22%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 21%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 20%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 14%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 9%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 7%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=525 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-12:rally-youngstown · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-12:rally-youngstown · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP