Donald Trump: Remarks, May 14, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Markets
33 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peng | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ship / Chip | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 73%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 58%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 57%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 56%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 52%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | No | 52%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | No | 52%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=226 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 45%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | No | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 40%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Shanghai | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Great Wall | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hong Kong | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mao | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Korea / Kim Jong Un | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | 38%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Tough Negotiator | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 36%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Japan / Korea | No | 33%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tanker | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Forbidden City | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamikaze | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rare earth | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan / Tibet | No | 30%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 24%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=364 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-bilateral-events-with-xi-jinping · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP