Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his announcement?
Markets
26 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 72%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 69%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 64%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 56%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | Yes | 43%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| EV / Electric | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Emission | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| November 5 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 40%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 25%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 65%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 56%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 50%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 47%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Climate Change | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Battery | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Butcher | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Penalty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | No | 26%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP