Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Polymarket Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address?
Markets
44 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=186 from settlement history | – |
| Dell | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kushner | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beckstrom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | Yes | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie Kirk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Witkoff | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 44%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom / Newscum | No | 58%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Kavanaugh | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 53%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Howard / Lutnick | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Caine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kevin Warsh | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monroe | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prince Mohammed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scalise | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Susie Wiles | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thune | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reagan | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bessent | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 49%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Reza / Pahlavi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | No | 48%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Homan | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Lincoln | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bush | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elizabeth Warren / Pocahontas | No | 48%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Powell / Too Late | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Machado | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hegseth | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 45%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Clinton | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 43%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Judy Shelton | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 35%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awho-will-trump-name-during-the-state-of-the-union-address · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP