Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jan 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week (January 18)?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Jan 12, 2026 to Jan 19, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
42 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | 81%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Helicopter | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fat | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stupid person | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Sean / Hannity | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | – | 0 | 73%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | – | 0 | 68%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | – | 0 | 65%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | 57%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Central Casting | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dancing in the street | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eight and a Quarter War | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Switzerland | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transition | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stimulus / Dividend | No | – | 0 | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Low-IQ | No | – | 0 | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 2026 | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peanut | No | – | 0 | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Anniversary / America250 | No | – | 0 | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 32%n=227 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 31%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | 26%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 23%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-january-18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP