Donald Trump: Monthly window, Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket Who will Trump name in April?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Apr 1, 2026 to Apr 30, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
37 words · 22 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianni / Infantino | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kushner | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Ilhan / Omar | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hillary | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oz | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Emmanuel / Macron | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zuckerberg | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Keir / Starmer | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Viktor / Orbán | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Leo XIV / Pope | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Castro | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Caine | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Warsh | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Jensen / Huang | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bush | Yes | – | 0 | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom / Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Warren / Pocahontas | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Khomeini | Yes | – | 0 | 26%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | – | 0 | 55%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | No | – | 0 | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Paxton | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rand Paul | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talarico | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Friedrich / Merz | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bolsonaro | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Leavitt | No | – | 0 | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Delcy | No | – | 0 | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kavanaugh | No | – | 0 | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nicki / Minaj | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Machado | No | – | 0 | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Homan | No | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | 40%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Massie | No | – | 0 | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awho-will-trump-name-in-april · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP