Donald Trump: Speech, Dec 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Address to the Nation?
Polymarket What will Trump say at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?
Markets
48 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 69%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 59%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 59%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Drug / Cartel | Yes | 57%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 55%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 52%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 52%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 50%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 50%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 50%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 48%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 59%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 56%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 56%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 52%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hanukkah | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Secretary of War | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden / Obama 3+ times | No | 45%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tren de Aragua | No | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pete / Hegseth | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 3+ times | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 42%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Boat 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drug / Cartel 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Military Equipment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Operation / Spear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you / Please 18+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Invasion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| B-2 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine 5+ times | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Submarine | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Mexico 5+ times | No | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| World War 3 | No | 36%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hero / Patriot | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ISIS / Hezbollah | No | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 30%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 29%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 24%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=209 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP