Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 9, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his roundtable meeting?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Pennsylvania events on December 9?
Markets
47 words · 35 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 70%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 62%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 58%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 51%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Job 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 49%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | Yes | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Green New Scam | Yes | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Walz | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy / Kamala | Yes | 42%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| King | Yes | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster / Catastrophe | Yes | 41%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Death Tax / Estate Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 40%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dell / Stellantis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Frack / Fracking | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Heritage / Wealth | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 35%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 35%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 28%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 61%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy / Autism | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mental institution | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 15+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia / General Motors | No | 38%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Amish / Rancher | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Oil | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / DOGE | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 26%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 20%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=200 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP