Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Kalshi Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?
Markets
47 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=188 from settlement history | – |
| Pelosi | Yes | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Dell | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie Kirk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Witkoff | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Jared / Kushner | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 38%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Modi | No | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nicki Minaj | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala | No | 53%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 53%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zelensky | No | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 51%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gianni / Infantino | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prince Andrew | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Satoshi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kavanaugh | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tulsi / Gabbard | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 46%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 45%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Howard / Lutnick | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | No | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Homan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Newsom / Newscum | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prince Mohammed | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thune | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bessent | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | No | 44%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Lincoln | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Clinton | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 39%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Judy Shelton | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 30%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Bad Bunny | No | 25%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP