Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 12, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the Congressional Ball?
Markets
23 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 73%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 67%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Merry Christmas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hanukkah | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 39%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 31%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / Olympics | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 59%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 57%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 56%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 53%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border Patrol | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 48%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 24%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 20%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=202 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP