Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 20, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks in North Carolina?
Markets
29 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics / 250 | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 55%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 53%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 51%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 48%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 47%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 47%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 46%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 35%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 34%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 26%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 17%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 67%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 48%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 32%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 22%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 20%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 14%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=212 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP