JD Vance: Interview, Aug 13, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: The Will Cain Show?
Markets
23 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 41%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 38%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 35%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 56%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 53%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force One | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | No | 37%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 33%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 32%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 29%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 27%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 18%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 15%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 12%n=22 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26AUG13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP