JD Vance: Interview, Nov 15, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox Interview?
Markets
20 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Schumer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate Change | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25NOV15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP