JD Vance: Interview, Nov 14, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox Interview?
Markets
26 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class | Yes | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Erika | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Filibuster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25NOV14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP