JD Vance: Speech, Sep 9, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
Markets
29 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 62%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 53%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 52%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 50%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 48%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 42%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 38%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 35%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Wife | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 31%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 53%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 41%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 27%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 26%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 25%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 18%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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