JD Vance: Debate, Oct 1, 2024
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?
Markets
24 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fire/Fired | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal alien | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala Harris 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala Harris 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Haitian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helene | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hillbilly | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IVF | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rig/Rigged | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Usha | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mamaw | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stolen valor | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-during-the-vp-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP