Will “Iran” be said 3+ times on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said 3+ times on World News Tonight in 36 of 56 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (64%), most recently on Sep 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=56, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, any host or reporter) in 3.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Iran (3+ times)
- Probability
- 54% · n=56
- Settled
- 36/56 (64%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
HE POINTS TO THE COST OF THE WAR IN IRAN.
…DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTED IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE. AND I THINK THAT THE WAR IN IRAN IS HER IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE. I
Tonight to the Strait of Hormuz in this war in Iran, our team on the USS George Washington carrier group with exclusive access where they're…
American fighter jets launching in the night. We're there just days after Iran hit a cargo ship in the strait, that ship sinking. Iran attacking…
Driven by gas and diesel and the war in Iran. President Trump campaigning saying pretend I'm on the ballot. Tonight, the farmers and ranchers in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 57 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 17 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Iran (3 + times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Iran (3 + times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Iran (3+ times)” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said 3+ times on World News Tonight in 36 of 56 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (64%), most recently on Sep 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran (3+ times)” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=56). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Iran (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/iran-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=iran%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP