ABC World News Tonight
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 1,173 word markets on ABC World News Tonight since 2026, on 352 different words; most reliably said: “Trump” 5+ times (48 of 63). Next: Episode, Oct 23, 2026 (17 words listed).
Next: Episode ·
17 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi| Word | Oct 8episode | Oct 12episode | Oct 13episode | Oct 14episode | Oct 15episode | Oct 16episode | Oct 19episode | Oct 20episode | Oct 21episode | Oct 22latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump5+ times | 9 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 8 episode, counts as said | 16 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 11 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 13 episode, counts as said | 10 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 10 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 15 episode, counts as said | 5 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 16 episode, counts as said | 16 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Trump (5+ times), Oct 20 episode | 8 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 15 times: Trump (5+ times), Oct 22 episode, counts as said | 10/10100% | 48/6376% | 73%n=63 from settlement history | 82¢ Kalshi |
| Putin | Not listed: Putin, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Putin, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Putin, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Putin, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Putin, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Putin, Oct 16 episode | 4 times: Putin, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Putin, Oct 20 episode | 10 times: Putin, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Putin, Oct 22 episode, counts as said | 4/4100% | 4/580% | 63%n=5 from settlement history | 57¢ Kalshi |
| Russia / Ukraine | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 16 episode | 14 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 20 episode | 16 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 12 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 22 episode, counts as said | 4/4100% | 4/667% | 62%n=6 from settlement history | 94¢ Kalshi |
| Diesel | Not listed: Diesel, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Diesel, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Diesel, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Diesel, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Diesel, Oct 15 episode | 1 time: Diesel, Oct 16 episode, counts as said | 3 times: Diesel, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Diesel, Oct 20 episode | 1 time: Diesel, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Diesel, Oct 22 episode | 4/580% | 10/1567% | 56%n=15 from settlement history | 56¢ Kalshi |
| Witkoff | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Witkoff, Oct 20 episode | 2 times: Witkoff, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Witkoff, Oct 22 episode, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 56%n=2 from settlement history | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Ramaswamy | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Ramaswamy, Oct 21 episode | 3 times: Ramaswamy, Oct 22 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 26¢ Kalshi |
| Hegseth | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Hegseth, Oct 22 episode | – | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history | 14¢ Kalshi |
| Alaska | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Alaska, Oct 22 episode | – | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history | 80¢ Kalshi |
| Pope / Vatican | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Pope / Vatican, Oct 22 episode | – | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history | 14¢ Kalshi |
| NFL / Football | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: NFL / Football, Oct 22 episode | – | 2/450% | 42%n=4 from settlement history | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Hunter Bidennew | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Hunter Biden, Oct 22 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 30¢ Kalshi |
| Kenyanew | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Kenya, Oct 22 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 30¢ Kalshi |
| West Banknew | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: West Bank, Oct 22 episode | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 72¢ Kalshi |
| World Series | Not listed: World Series, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: World Series, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: World Series, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: World Series, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: World Series, Oct 15 episode | 0 times: World Series, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: World Series, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: World Series, Oct 20 episode | 6 times: World Series, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 0 times: World Series, Oct 22 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 39%n=3 from settlement history | 62¢ Kalshi |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 13 episode | 4 times: Inflation, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Inflation, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 22 episode | 1/250% | 4/1331% | 34%n=13 from settlement history | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Starlink | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 14 episode | 0 times: Starlink, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 20 episode | 0 times: Starlink, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Starlink, Oct 22 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 31%n=2 from settlement history | 60¢ Kalshi |
| Ebolanever said | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 20 episode | 0 times: Ebola, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Ebola, Oct 22 episode | 0/10% | 0/90% | 25%n=9 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 18:23 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 341, most settled first · page 1 of 5| Word | Oct 8episode | Oct 12episode | Oct 13episode | Oct 14episode | Oct 15episode | Oct 16episode | Oct 19episode | Oct 20episode | Oct 21episode | Oct 22latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran3+ times | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 22 episode | – | 36/5664% | 54%n=56 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 13 episode | 6 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 3 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 15 episode, counts as said | 4 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 16 episode, counts as said | 2 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 20 episode | 3 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 22 episode | 6/786% | 35/5366% | 61%n=53 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 12 episode | 1 time: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 13 episode, counts as said | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 15 episode | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 22 episode | 1/425% | 14/4929% | 34%n=49 from settlement history |
| ICE | Not listed: ICE, Oct 8 episode | 8 times: ICE, Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 0 times: ICE, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: ICE, Oct 14 episode | 12 times: ICE, Oct 15 episode, counts as said | 0 times: ICE, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: ICE, Oct 19 episode | Said: ICE, Oct 20 episode | 4 times: ICE, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 0 times: ICE, Oct 22 episode | 4/757% | 15/4236% | 42%n=42 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 22 episode | – | 1/254% | 24%n=25 from settlement history |
| Russia / Russian | 3 times: Russia / Russian, Oct 8 episode, counts as said | 7 times: Russia / Russian, Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Russia / Russian, Oct 13 episode | 8 times: Russia / Russian, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Russia / Russian, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Oct 22 episode | 3/560% | 8/2040% | 48%n=20 from settlement history |
| Supreme Court | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 16 episode | 0 times: Supreme Court, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 22 episode | 0/10% | 6/1932% | 30%n=19 from settlement history |
| Hormuz | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 22 episode | – | 6/1540% | 37%n=15 from settlement history |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 22 episode | – | 2/1513% | 32%n=15 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 8 episode | 6 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 13 episode | 5 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 12 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 15 episode, counts as said | 11 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 16 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 20 episode | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 21 episode | 2 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 22 episode, counts as said | 5/956% | 8/1457% | 47%n=14 from settlement history |
| Midterm | Not listed: Midterm, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Oct 16 episode | 1 time: Midterm, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Midterm, Oct 20 episode | 3 times: Midterm, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Midterm, Oct 22 episode | 3/475% | 7/1450% | 51%n=14 from settlement history |
| Saudi | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 8 episode | 3 times: Saudi, Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Saudi, Oct 13 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Saudi, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Saudi, Oct 22 episode | 2/367% | 6/1155% | 46%n=11 from settlement history |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy | 4 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 8 episode, counts as said | 5 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 13 episode | 11 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy, Oct 22 episode | 3/560% | 4/1136% | 40%n=11 from settlement history |
| NATO | Not listed: NATO, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: NATO, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/1127% | 36%n=11 from settlement history |
| Blanche | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Blanche, Oct 22 episode | – | 5/1050% | 42%n=10 from settlement history |
| Measles | 0 times: Measles, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 15 episode | 0 times: Measles, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Measles, Oct 22 episode | 0/20% | 2/1020% | 26%n=10 from settlement history |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 22 episode | – | 2/1020% | 33%n=10 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese / Xi | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese / Xi, Oct 22 episode | – | 6/967% | 53%n=9 from settlement history |
| Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/933% | 36%n=9 from settlement history |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/933% | 38%n=9 from settlement history |
| Canada / Canadian | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Oct 22 episode | – | 2/922% | 33%n=9 from settlement history |
| Flood / Flooding | Not listed: Flood / Flooding, Oct 8 episode | 2 times: Flood / Flooding, Oct 12 episode, counts as said | 2 times: Flood / Flooding, Oct 13 episode, counts as said | 3 times: Flood / Flooding, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 3 times: Flood / Flooding, Oct 15 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Flood / Flooding, Oct 16 episode, counts as said | 2 times: Flood / Flooding, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Flood / Flooding, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Flood / Flooding, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Flood / Flooding, Oct 22 episode | 7/7100% | 7/888% | 69%n=8 from settlement history |
| Vance | Not listed: Vance, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Vance, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/838% | 39%n=8 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 22 episode | – | 5/771% | 48%n=7 from settlement history |
| Pentagon | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Pentagon, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/743% | 41%n=7 from settlement history |
| Nepal | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Nepal, Oct 22 episode | – | 5/683% | 52%n=6 from settlement history |
| Drone | Not listed: Drone, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Drone, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/650% | 38%n=6 from settlement history |
| Hurricane | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Hurricane, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/650% | 44%n=6 from settlement history |
| Powerball | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Powerball, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/650% | 43%n=6 from settlement history |
| World Cup | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/650% | 43%n=6 from settlement history |
| Meta / Facebook / Instagram | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Meta / Facebook / Instagram, Oct 22 episode | – | 2/633% | 39%n=6 from settlement history |
| LeBron | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: LeBron, Oct 21 episode | 0 times: LeBron, Oct 22 episode | 0/10% | 2/633% | 36%n=6 from settlement history |
| Tupac | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 12 episode | 0 times: Tupac, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Tupac, Oct 22 episode | 0/10% | 2/633% | 37%n=6 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 22 episode | – | 1/617% | 36%n=6 from settlement history |
| Dubai / Tel Aviv | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Dubai / Tel Aviv, Oct 22 episode | – | 4/580% | 54%n=5 from settlement history |
| Nor'easter | Not listed: Nor'easter, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Nor'easter, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Nor'easter, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Nor'easter, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Nor'easter, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Nor'easter, Oct 16 episode | 2 times: Nor'easter, Oct 19 episode, counts as said | Said: Nor'easter, Oct 20 episode | 1 time: Nor'easter, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Nor'easter, Oct 22 episode | 3/475% | 4/580% | 56%n=5 from settlement history |
| UN / United Nations | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: UN / United Nations, Oct 22 episode | – | 4/580% | 53%n=5 from settlement history |
| Helicopter | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Helicopter, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/560% | 46%n=5 from settlement history |
| Kennedy | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Kennedy, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/560% | 46%n=5 from settlement history |
| Prince Harry / Meghan Markle | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 8 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 12 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 13 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 15 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 16 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 19 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 20 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 21 episode | Not listed: Prince Harry / Meghan Markle, Oct 22 episode | – | 3/560% | 44%n=5 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 649 of 676 settled words resolved (96.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | no transcript | 17 | Open | – |
| Oct 22, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Captions · machine-attributed | 15 | 5 yes · 10 no | 14/15 (93%) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Captions · machine-attributed | 18 | 11 yes · 7 no | 18/18 (100%) |
| Oct 20, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | no transcript | 16 | 10 yes · 6 no | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 16 | 10 yes · 6 no | 16/16 (100%) |
| Oct 16, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 15 | 8 yes · 7 no | 13/15 (87%) |
| Oct 15, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 16 | 7 yes · 9 no | 16/16 (100%) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will any the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 16 | 9 yes · 7 no | 16/16 (100%) |
| Oct 13, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 18 | 9 yes · 9 no | 17/18 (94%) |
| Oct 12, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 17 | 11 yes · 6 no | 17/17 (100%) |
| Oct 8, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 17 | 8 yes · 9 no | 17/17 (100%) |
| Oct 7, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? | Machine transcript | 16 | 5 yes · 11 no | 14/16 (88%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “ABC World News Tonight: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/world-news-tonight · words: /api/v1/history?entity=world-news-tonight · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP