ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Jul 30, 2026
Kalshi What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any host or reporter Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 65%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Cornyn | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lifeguard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blanche | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | Yes | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Diddy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egypt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FIFA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leopold / Aschenbrenner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 18%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP