ABC World News Tonight, September 18, 2026
On the Sep 18, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 5 of the 18 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 17 of 18 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 18- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 54%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Warren Buffett | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 65%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 56%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve / Interest Rate | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Helicopter | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese / Xi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…in Iran now in its seventh month and with Americans concerned over gas prices at diesel now hitting an all-time high. Tonight, the president now…
…let them into my, into the people's house. Today, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. standing silently behind him, the president also defending his threat to…
…with Iran now in its seventh month, gas prices steadily climbing and diesel at an all-time high, the president going back to his election victory…
Tonight, famed investor Warren Buffett stepping down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. The 96-year-old investor led the trillion-dollar company for more than six decades. His…
…was also asked about his son Don Jr.'s decision to let a Russian oligarch with close ties to Vladimir Putin pay for his lavish two-day…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-09-18:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-09-18:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP