ABC World News Tonight, September 1, 2026
On the Sep 1, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 7 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 49%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Times Square | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nepal | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pentagon | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Grand Canyon | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tupac | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hurricane | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carney | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Driscoll | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flock | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanction / Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…the judge, deadlocked, and what the judge then told them. Tonight, the U.S. launching airstrikes on Iran as the war now enters its seventh month.
The chilling new video tonight of that knife attack in New York's Times Square. The suspect waving knives in both hands. And tonight, the victim…
…was shot. David. Pierre Thomas with us tonight. Pierre, thank you. Overseas tonight, the horrific new images just now emerging of the horror in Nepal.
…a new round of attacks after Iran struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump saying the Pentagon is also targeting Iran's radar systems.
…Oh, my God. Drenching rain pummeling Zion National Park. And in the Grand Canyon, days after creeks turned into raging rivers, destroying trails and footbridges,…
Tonight, nearly 30 years after the murder of Tupac Shakur near the Las Vegas Strip, that guilty verdict overnight, Dwayne Davis convicted for orchestrating the…
Today, in a striking show of support, Russia's Vladimir Putin sitting down with Iran's president. Putin pledging, quote, in this difficult period, we're trying to…
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