ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Jul 28, 2026
Kalshi What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
17 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: any host or reporter Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 61%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Earthquake | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 68%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fauci | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Herbert / Madison Beer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blanche | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 19%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP