ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Jul 15, 2026
Kalshi What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Daylight | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taco Bell | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blanche | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Speech / Address | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP