ABC World News Tonight, September 25, 2026
On the Sep 25, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 7 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese / Xi | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Pope / Vatican | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 54%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 67%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 46%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| UN / United Nations | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| CNN / MS NOW / Politico | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Navy / Lincoln | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hurricane / Nolo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Butler / Copenhaver | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starbucks | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / Anthropic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…new warning tonight. This evening, President Trump praising his two-day summit with China's President Xi. The president is asked, did you ask China about its…
Tonight, Pope Leo on what he saw and what he said when he was asked about the Chicago White Sox, his hometown, making the playoffs.…
…summit with China's President Xi. The president was asked, did you ask China about its support of Iran and about artificial intelligence? Here's Rachel Scott.
President Trump then taking Xi to the National Archives to view the Constitution and the Bill of Rights with the First Amendment. The same week,…
…to do great. David, Trump and Xi wrapping up their summit as world leaders conclude their annual gathering at the U.N. here in New York.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-09-25:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-09-25:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP