ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Jul 25, 2026
Kalshi What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any host or reporter Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 65%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Yemen / Houthi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cyclosporiasis / Cyclospora | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| White House | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| LeBron | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Wildfire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Measles | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Flood / Flooding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fourth Term | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plane / Seaplane | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SpaceX / Starship / Starlink | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP