ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Aug 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any host or reporter Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 67%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 61%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fire / Wildfire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cyberattack / Cyber Attack | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| In-N-Out | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Max Miller | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moreno | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spider-Man | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IRS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| WestJet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kalshi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 30%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 17%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP