ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Aug 11, 2026
Kalshi What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: any host or reporter Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 63%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 57%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force One | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Luigi / Mangione | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eclipse | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Korea / North Korean | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Toyota | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kardashian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 30%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 14%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP