ABC World News Tonight, August 31, 2026
On the Aug 31, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 6 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 15 of 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 16- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 59%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Nepal | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 46%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Pentagon | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Karina | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Messi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| US Open | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
Also breaking the deadly flooding in the Grand Canyon. The urgent search at this hour, more than a dozen people still reported missing. A wall…
…in large air pockets in the mud. The breaking headline involving President Trump's $400 million ballroom tonight. Late today, the Supreme Court decision allowing construction…
…a Monday evening. Ginger, we'll see you first thing in the morning on GMA. Thank you. Meantime, overseas tonight, the massive surge effort in Nepal.
…dissent writing, it is likely unlawful. Also breaking amid this war in Iran, the news coming in at this hour that the Secretary of the…
…that top military leaders are warning a prolonged war will leave the Pentagon without enough munitions and resources to confront other threats against America, both…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-08-31:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-08-31:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP