ABC World News Tonight, September 4, 2026
On the Sep 4, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 7 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 15 of 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 16- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 55%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 56%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Nepal / Nepali | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Football | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job / Hiring | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vance | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FCC / Disney | No | 2 | 2 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia / Saudi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / Musk | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / Astra | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
President Trump calling the war with Iran small potatoes after being asked about J.D. Vance's recent remarks on the ongoing conflict. The incredible images tonight…
…Democrats blasting the latest comments from President Trump calling the war with Iran small potatoes. Those remarks after being asked about J.D. Vance's recent words…
…White House. Thank you. Now to the incredible rescues in flood ravaged Nepal, two men found alive pulled from a tunnel that was blocked for…
…to go back to college and play for LSU despite legal challenges. A stunning decision as week one of the college football season kicks off.
economy, a stronger than expected jobs report showing unemployment holding steady at just above 4%. It's been amazing. And today they announced 162,000 jobs, new…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-09-04:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-09-04:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP