ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Aug 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
17 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: any host or reporter Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 69%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 64%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFC | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | No | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cyberattack / Cyber Attack | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cyclosporiasis / Cyclospora | No | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Powerball | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subway | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IRS | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ebola | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 28%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 16%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG04B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP