ABC World News Tonight, September 15, 2026
On the Sep 15, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 5 of the 17 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 16 of 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 17- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 64%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 29%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Patel | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve / Interest Rate | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Emmy / Emmys | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hoax | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yemen / Yemeni / Houthi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
Tonight, President Trump's hand-picked board at the Kennedy Center voting to shut the Kennedy Center down. after a judge refused to allow Trump to put…
…Adan tonight. Melissa, thank you. Tonight, President Trump's handpicked board at the Kennedy Center has voted to shut down the Kennedy Center right now after…
…David. John Carl with us here tonight, John, thank you. Tonight, the Supreme Court says President Trump cannot restrict mail-in voting before the midterms. Tonight,…
…Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, now apologizing tonight after laughing about an AI video showing the coach slapping a female reporter.
…push for changes before the election. On Capitol Hill, FBI Director Cash Patel saying FBI agents will be in key battlegrounds, including Michigan, and he…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-09-15:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-09-15:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP