ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Jul 16, 2026
Kalshi What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Earthquake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teleprompter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP