ABC World News Tonight, September 21, 2026
On the Sep 21, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 7 of the 17 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 16 of 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 17- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 34%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 60%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| CNN / MS NOW / Politico | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DoorDash | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| First Amendment | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Warren Buffett | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese / Xi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Haiti / Haitian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Measles | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…Airport. And what we just learned moments ago. Also breaking tonight, the ICE shooting of a DoorDash driver shot and wounded by an ICE agent…
…president then said about his decision. Those outlets tonight now suing the Trump administration. Disturbing news tonight about the death of model Cindy Crawford and…
…or the critique, that we engage. Trump defending his decision to ban CNN, MS Now and Politico from the White House because he doesn't like…
Thank you. Also breaking tonight, the ICE shooting of a DoorDash driver in Austin, Texas. The driver shot and wounded by an ICE agent during…
…all started with a pickup truck hauling a trailer that caught fire. Inside that trailer, a race car and canisters of gasoline and nitrous oxide.
…Politico are now suing the administration, accusing the president of a, quote, direct assault on the First Amendment and a blatant violation of the Constitution.
…York City tonight, President Trump standing side by side with Mayor Zoran Mamdani. The mayor invited all reporters to Gracie Manchin after the president's ban…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-09-21:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-09-21:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP