ABC World News Tonight: Episode, Jul 10, 2026
Kalshi What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?
Markets
14 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham / Platner | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UFC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wildfire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ebola | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP