Will Donald Trump say “Sanctuary”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Sanctuary” at 11 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (48%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 3 times.

51%from settlement history only · n=23Next: Rally, Oct 27, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes yes no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
77¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Sanctuary

Probability
51% · n=23
Settled
11/23 (48%)
Latest transcripts
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 8:08In transcript

…to be honest with you. Turk also voted in favor of deadly sanctuary cities. He voted to give lavish welfare benefits to illegal aliens and…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled no

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 23 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes1
Oct 20, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Oct 13, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 9, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Oct 3, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Sep 16, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes0
Sep 10, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo0
Aug 14, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes8
Mar 23, 2026SanctuaryKalshiYes–
Mar 16, 2026SanctuaryKalshiNo–
Mar 14, 2025SanctuaryPolymarketNo–
Mar 13, 2025SanctuaryKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Sanctuary”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Sanctuary” at 11 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (48%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Sanctuary” next time?
51%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Sanctuary’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/sanctuary (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=sanctuary · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP