Will Donald Trump say “Gay”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gay” at 5 of 18 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (28%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 1 time; no monthly windows among them yet.

39%from settlement history only · n=18Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no yes no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
99¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gay

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Gay

Probability
39% · n=18
Settled
5/18 (28%)
Latest transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker49:32In transcript

…States. You're not supposed to be dancing off the stage to the gay national anthem. Well, I got I did very well. She said it's…

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 18 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 31, 2026GayPolymarketYes1
Oct 21, 2026GayPolymarketYes1
Oct 11, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Oct 10, 2026GayPolymarketNo–
Sep 30, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Sep 9, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Aug 31, 2026GayPolymarketYes4
Jul 28, 2026GayPolymarketNo–
Jun 30, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Apr 30, 2026GayPolymarketYes0
Apr 21, 2026GayPolymarketNo–
Apr 17, 2026GayPolymarketNo–
Apr 15, 2026GayPolymarketNo–
Apr 5, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Apr 5, 2026GayPolymarketNo0
Mar 29, 2026GayPolymarketYes0
Mar 17, 2025GayPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Gay”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gay” at 5 of 18 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (28%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gay” next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gay’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gay (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gay · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP