Will Donald Trump say “Diesel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Diesel” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Diesel
- Probability
- 55% · n=8
- Settled
- 5/8 (62%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…ago, I also signed an order waving off-road requirements for red dye diesel, allowing farmers, truckers, and anyone else to fill up diesel totally taxfree.…
…given tremendous amounts to Ukraine. We've gotten nothing back, other than high diesel. We have -- we have given probably -- possibly more money to…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Diesel |  Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Diesel |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Diesel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Diesel” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Diesel” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Diesel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/diesel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=diesel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP