Will Donald Trump say “Palestine / Palestinian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Palestine / Palestinian” at 9 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 28, 2025 (43%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 26¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Palestine / Palestinian
- Probability
- 38% · n=21
- Settled
- 9/21 (43%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 21 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Palestine / Palestinian | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Palestine / Palestinian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Palestine / Palestinian | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Palestine / Palestinian”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Palestine / Palestinian” at 9 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 28, 2025 (43%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Palestine / Palestinian” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Palestine / Palestinian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/palestine-or-palestinian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=palestine%20%2F%20palestinian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP