Will Donald Trump say “Small Business”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Small Business” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 2 times.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Small Business
- Probability
- 56% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…things I'm happiest about is uh if you leave your farm or small business to your children, they don't have to pay a state tax.…
…corrupt form of health care. For foreign migrants, we uncovered 562,000 fraudulent small business loans. Think of it, not $562,000 -- 562,000 fraudulent loans. And…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Small Business |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Small Business”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Small Business” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Small Business” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Small Business’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/small-business (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=small%20business · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP