Will Donald Trump say “Border” 20+ times?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 20+ times at 18 of 30 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (60%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=30, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 0 times.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Border 20+ times
- Probability
- 42% · n=30
- Settled
- 18/30 (60%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
14 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…it's a big reason. Take away your second amendment. Wants to open your borders. Wants to do so many things that you're just not going
…ballot because we did so many things. Greatest tax cuts, the strongest border we've ever had, all these things. And it can go away as…
Every settled listing
newest first · 30 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Border 20+ times |  Polymarket | No | 14 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Border 20+ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Border 20+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Border 20+ times”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 20+ times at 18 of 30 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (60%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Border 20+ times” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=30). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Border 20+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/border-20plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=border%20%2820%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP