Will Donald Trump say “America First / Gulf of America”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “America First / Gulf of America” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 17, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 6 times.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
America First / Gulf of America
- Probability
- 48% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…great. And we're going to elect a Republican House, a Republican Senate, America First Patriots up and down the line. We have them all standing…
…of changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America?" They said, "That's so funny." And then the guy comes back,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | America First / Gulf of America |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | America First / Gulf of America | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | America First / Gulf of America | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | America First / Gulf of America | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “America First / Gulf of America”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “America First / Gulf of America” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 17, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “America First / Gulf of America” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘America First / Gulf of America’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/america-first-or-gulf-of-america (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=america%20first%20%2F%20gulf%20of%20america · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP