Will Donald Trump say “FEMA”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “FEMA” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 9, 2024 (18%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 0 times.
34%from settlement history only · n=11counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
FEMA
- Probability
- 34% · n=11
- Settled
- 2/11 (18%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | FEMA |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | FEMA | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | FEMA | Kalshi | Yes | 0 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | FEMA |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FEMA | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FEMA | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FEMA | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | FEMA | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2024 | FEMA | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 21, 2024 | FEMA | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 11, 2024 | FEMA | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2024 | FEMA | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “FEMA”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “FEMA” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 9, 2024 (18%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “FEMA” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘FEMA’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fema (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fema · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP