Will Donald Trump say “Tariff” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” 3+ times at 9 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2024 (64%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 81¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tariff (3+ times)
- Probability
- 53% · n=14
- Settled
- 9/14 (64%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted.
…in big trouble with a B. 22 billion dollars. I impose historic tariffs. One of my all-time favorite words. It used to be my favorite…
…fifth favorite word. Made us rich. Because in order not to pay tariffs, they have to build their plant here. That's why you have more…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Tariff (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Tariff (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Tariff (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Tariff (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Tariff 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Tariff (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Tariff (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Tariff 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Tariff (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Tariff 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Tariff 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Tariff 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Tariff 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Tariff 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tariff (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” 3+ times at 9 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2024 (64%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tariff (3+ times)” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tariff (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tariff-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tariff%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP