Will Donald Trump say “Social Security” 5+ times?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Social Security” 5+ times at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.

40%from settlement history only · n=3Next: Rally, Oct 27, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
26¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=social%20security%20%285%2B%20times%29

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Social Security (5+ times)

Probability
40% · n=3
Settled
1/3 (33%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 2 times (below the threshold)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker27:24In transcript

…bill, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security for our great seniors. And we we did something that I…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:13:36In transcript

…voted against no tax on overtime. They voted against no tax on social security for our great seniors. They voted against voter ID. Why? Because…

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026Social Security (5+ times)KalshiNo2
Oct 20, 2026Social Security (5+ times)KalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026Social Security (5+ times)KalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Social Security (5+ times)”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Social Security” 5+ times at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Social Security (5+ times)” next time?
40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Social Security (5+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/social-security-5plus (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=social%20security%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP