Will Donald Trump say “Genius Act”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Genius Act” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Genius Act
- Probability
- 53% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Genius Act |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Genius Act | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 22, 2025 | GENIUS Act | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Genius Act”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Genius Act” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 27, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Genius Act” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Genius Act’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/genius-act (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=genius%20act · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP