Will Donald Trump say “Dow / S&P”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dow / S&P” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Dow / S&P
- Probability
- 45% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Dow / S&P”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dow / S&P” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Dow / S&P” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Dow / S&P’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/dow-or-s-and-p (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=dow%20%2F%20s%26p · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP